Friday, December 17, 2010

U.S. House approves extending Bush-era tax cuts

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House lawmakers approved a two-year across-the-board extension of Bush-era tax cuts just before midnight on Thursday, capping off weeks of furious debate and ensuring that rates won't rise on virtually all Americans come Jan. 1.

The bill, already passed by the Senate, now goes to President Barack Obama for signature. It also includes a 2% rollback of Social Security payroll taxes; extends unemployment insurance for 13 months; and brings back the estate tax at 35% for two years on estates of more than $5 million. The House vote was 277-148.

This is a repost from: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-house-approves-extending-bush-era-tax-cuts-2010-12-17

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

NY Senator Charged with Embezzling From His Clinic

ALBANY, N.Y. – Pedro Espada Jr. has been at the center of two of the most tumultuous years the two-century-old New York Senate has ever seen.

Now, the bold and charismatic Bronx Democrat who plied his way from freshman to majority leader in six months stands accused of embezzling state grants he directed to his Bronx health clinic in some New York's poorest neighborhoods to pay for a cool car and a hot night life.

The U.S. Attorney's Office in Brooklyn and state Attorney GeneralAndrew Cuomo on Tuesday indicted the 57-year-old state senator and his son, Pedro Gautier Espada, 37, on six charges stemming from the activities involving the Comprehensive Community Development Corp., a federally funded not-for-profit in the Bronx known as Soundview. They are accused of embezzling more than $500,000 from clinic the senator founded for lavish spending, including a down payment on a $125,000 Bentley and $14,000 in tickets for sports and shows.

The indictment says Espada charged $110,000 in posh restaurants, including $20,482 at his favorite sushi place near his home outside his Senate District in Mamaroneck, and pony rides and a petting zoo at a family birthday party.

"In these difficult economic times, the charged crimes are all the more reprehensible," U.S. Attorney Loretta Lynch said.

Cuomo, New York's governor-elect, decried what he called looting and said the "cruel twist" was "they were using funds that were supposed to go to poor people."

"It's one of the more outrageous abuses of public office that I have ever seen," Cuomo said.

Espada is just the latest Albany politician to be indicted in office, and the second Senate majority leader in three years. But like former Republican Majority Leader Joseph Bruno who is appealing a conviction charge for mixing private business with his state power, Espada vows to take his case to court. Espada called the investigation that lingered throughout his two-year term as a political "witch hunt" by Cuomo.

Few doubt Espada will carry out his threat. He rose from impoverished street fighter in Puerto Rico to Fordham University graduate and boldly manipulated Albany's old-boy political power structure in the Senate. Within days of his election in 2008, his second stint in the Senate, the Democrat formed his "three amigos" coalition with two other Democrats to threaten his own Democratic majority. He demanded leadership positions in part for what Espada said was a needed Latino voice, or the three would join Republicans and end the Democrats' first majority in a half-century.

Espada won.

Then in June of 2009, Espada and freshman Sen. Hiram Monserrate of Queens, then under investigation for a domestic violence incident that would later cost him his seat, carried out the threat. They joined the Republicans, with Espada gaining the title Senate president. More than a month of gridlock ensued, with neither side recognizing the others' authority — even holding simultaneous sessions at one point and locking each other out of the chamber without a clear majority.

But when Democratic Gov. David Paterson appointed a lieutenant governor, in a constitutional gamble upheld in the courts, Espada returned to the Democratic fold. He also gained the powerful and lucrative majority leader's post.

With his bold suits of gold pinstripes in the Senate long dominated by white men in dark blue, the Latino had a charismatic manner in English and Spanish with all lawmakers, and possessed a shrewd political sense.

He became "Pete" to senators of both parties, who voted for him and often castigated him later. Hours before his indictment Espada issued a year-end report of the majority leader expounding on the importance of state grants for nonprofit agencies and taking credit for reforms in the Senate to make lawmakers accountable.

"I am proud to have served as the catalyst for this reform," he stated in a press release the Senate's Democratic majority refused to pay for. After the indictment was released, Espada was immediately stripped of his majority leader title and removed as housing committee chairman.

"Thirty years ago Senator Espada founded the Soundview Health Care Center," said his attorney, Susan R. Necheles. "Soundview has provided high quality health care to thousands of families, children and senior citizens in the Bronx. Today is a sad day for Soundview and a sad day for the Espada family. Senator Espada and his son deny any wrongdoing and we intend to fight the charges in court."

Espada lost his seat in the September primary, with most Democrats clamoring to be seen opposing him. Republicans used Espada's image in what appears to be their successful effort to win back the majority in the November election, pending an ongoing appeal of the vote.

Cuomo said taxpayer funds since 2005 were diverted for the Espadas' personal use.

"There was no doubt he and his son were looting Soundview for a lavish lifestyle," Cuomo, a Democrat, told reporters.

Cuomo said the Espadas could face up to 10 years in prison on each of five embezzlement charges, five years for the single conspiracy count and fines of $250,000 on each charge.

In earlier civil suits, which are still pending, Cuomo accused Espada of siphoning $14 million from his government-funded clinic, breaching his fiduciary duty, and seeking to remove him from the board. Authorities said the difference in amounts represents liabilities on the Soundview books not yet spent, including a severance package of at least $9 million.

"There's a culture in Albany that has been too tolerant of legal violations and ethical absences," Cuomo said.

*This is a repost from: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101215/ap_on_re_us/us_senator_indicted

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Scapegoating: The Response to Underperformance

ScapegoatThe institutional money management industry has a split personality.  One half is highly concentrated and stable, consisting of large banks and insurance companies offering generic products.  The other half is unstable, consisting of a large number of money managers offering active money management and specialized services.  In many ways this segment is like the market for restaurants and beauty salons, with customers always in search of new favorites and the latest hot spots.

A combination of private interests and behavioral phenomena provide the basis for the existence of this active segment.  Both frame dependence and heuristic-driven bias play major roles.

Frame dependence occurs as the sponsor divides responsibility for it’s portfolio across several active money managers.  These managers are evaluated relative to benchmarks.  The division of the portfolio gives rise to a mental accounting structure with particular reference points.  This leads investors to react more strongly to outcomes that fall below a reference point than to outcomes that lie above it.  Mental accounting also leads to the view that diversification means having variety across styles rather than maximizing expected returns subject to a fixed return variance.

An important aspect of active money management is scapegoating, or shifting regret to, the manager when returns are poor.  Given the fact that active managers underperform strategic asset allocation, the amount of underperformance may serve to measure the value of scapegoating.

Scapegoating is one explanation for why investors select active money managers.  Another is that investors are overconfident, believing the active managers they hire are likely to outperform strategic asset allocation.  

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Forbes 2010 Investment Guide Backtest

ForbesIt’s that time of the year again!  The time when I take out the back issues of Forbes, Fortune, Smart Money and Kiplinger to compare their hot stock, mutual fund, or ETF for the coming year to what actually happened at the end of the year.  This issue comes from Forbes’ Decemeber 14, 2009 so let’s see their hot picks!

Interestingly enough, this is their “Investment Guide” annual issue but it lacks the typical predictions on ETFs, emerging markets and alternative funds found in previous years.  The one thing they did focus on is a select few Healthcare Stocks.

The Buy

Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN):  At press time, the stock traded at $8.96.  It is trading today at $7.65.  Representing a 14% LOSS per share.

Mednax (MD): At press time, the stock traded at $57.20.  It is trading today at $64.17.  Representing a 12% GAIN per share.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH):  At press time, the stock traded at $28.97.  It is trading today at $36.89.  Representing a 27% GAIN per share.

The Sell

Boston Scientific (BSX):  At press time, the stock traded at $8.27.  It is trading today at $6.55.  Representing a 20% Reward* per share.  A reward would be realized when the investor saved money by dumping this stock if they owned it or they made a profit by shorting the stock.

Health Care Select ETF (XLV):  At press time, the ETF traded at $30.16.  It is trading today at $30.88.  Representing a 2% Missed Opportunity.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): At press time, the stock traded at $62.17.  Surprisingly, it is still trading at that price though it yields a pretty nice dividend of 3.47% so, technically that is a Missed Opportunity.

This backtest resulted in a below average rate of return on the buy side with +8.33%.  And, a value of +4.87% return on the sell side.  

The S&P 500’s YTD range is 1101.3 to 1223.9 which represents an 11.1% GAIN.